Last night, House Democrats flipped New York’s 3rd Congressional District, and now need to flip only four seats to take back the House in 2024. But in a must-win special election, NY-03 presented unique challenges that HMP embraced from day one to lead in message development, spending, strategy, and turnout.
HMP’s Plan of Attack
TOPLINE: NY-03 is a district that has rapidly pivoted away from Democrats since President Biden’s 8-point win in 2020. In 2022, Governor Hochul and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer lost this district by 12 points and 4 points, respectively. And, in November 2023, Republicans swept state and local elections in the district, further cementing the GOP’s stronghold in the area. HMP’s plan from the start of this campaign operated from that understanding, and that reality informed every aspect of HMP’s strategy.
- HMP made record investments in the district. With such a short runway to communicate with voters, HMP immediately reserved double the amount of NYC broadcast TV that it purchased in any NYC race in 2022, planned for our largest digital budget in a district ever, and a robust mail plan. HMP ultimately ended up investing $7.2 million in NY-03.
- HMP started polling one day after Mazi Pilip was nominated on December 14, and was out of the field by December 19. This gave HMP the ability to be the first and only organization with the ability to identify lines of attack against Pilip which assisted the entire Democratic ecosystem in making data-driven decisions.
- HMP was the first outside group to advertise in the district with digital buys starting between Christmas and New Years, focused on former Rep. Tom Suozzi’s record on immigration reform.
- While Republicans operatives chastised this strategy – they were wrong.
- In addition to paid media, we worked with allies such as Battleground NY, LCV, and UNITE HERE on a $1.5M paid canvass to turn out voters in this low salience special election.
Messaging Matters
TOPLINE: In 2022, economic contrast research projects conducted by HMP showed repeatedly that Democrats dramatically improved their position when they went on offense to talk about the economy. Democrats must do the same on immigration while continuing to define Republicans as extremists on abortion and drawing contrast with flawed GOP candidates.
- HMP didn’t just go with our gut, we relied on hard data to drive our messaging. Our research started immediately and included extensive quantitative and qualitative data. We invested in online ad testing to learn from real voters which spots were most effective, and we used that research to inform our media buying and creative decisions.
- Abortion: As HMP has said before, if House Republicans get their way, they will implement a nationwide abortion ban – restricting American freedoms and ripping rights away from millions of women. As an issue, abortion remains just as powerful as ever – no matter how Republicans try to spin it.
- HMP allocated more GRP’s to negative advertising on abortion than than any other negative argument, and this helped fuel Democratic turnout.
- Immigration: It is imperative for Democrats to take the fight to Republicans and hammer them on their failure to support the Senate’s bipartisan border security bill. House Republicans bent the knee to Trump on immigration and have made it clear that they care more about MAGA extremism than the American people.
- Ethically Challenged, Unvetted, Extremist Republican: HMP was the first Democratic organization to conduct qualitative research on Mazi Pilip to determine how voters responded to her candidacy and identified a new line of attack: Pilip is running from reporters, ducking debates, and hiding something.
- Pilip’s failure to campaign captured an enormous amount of negative earned media for her campaign, and sank her with undecided voters across the district.
- HMP ran television, digital advertisements, and direct mail pieces throughout this special election on a variety of issues that targeted different key slices of the electorate:
- 39% of our paid communications mentioned abortion
- 20% of our paid communications mentioned immigration
- 14% of our paid communications mentioned police/crime
- 14% of our paid communications Mazi Pilip ethics issues
- 11% of our paid communications mentioned bipartisanship
Reaching Out to EVERY Voter
TOPLINE: Democrats will not take back the House unless we reach out to EVERY voter. That’s why HMP made extensive efforts to communicate with Latino and AAPI communities in NY-03 early and often with persuasion and mobilization messages.
- HMP spent hundreds of thousands in digital advertising tailored to Latino and AAPI voters in NY-03.
- HMP communicated to voters in English, Spanish, and Mandarin through various mediums.
- HMP created vertical paid media content with Latino and AAPI spokespeople in an effort to more effectively reach and communicate to young voters of color.
- These advertisements were not just run on social media platforms, but across various streaming video platforms including YouTube.
Democrats On Track to Take Back the House
TOPLINE: Last night’s victory shows that Democrats have a clear path to taking back the House – and HMP will do whatever it takes to get that done.
- When looking at 2022 Republican margins, if last night’s results were replicated across the 18 seats won by President Biden in 2020 that are now held by Republicans – Democrats would win 17 of the 17 remaining seats.
- When looking at Lee Zeldin’s 2022 margins, if we were to replicate last night’s results across New York, Democrats would win five out of the remaining five competitive seats. .
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